1.  What does the term  BREXIT refer to  and what does it mean?    

BREXIT is a media term.  It refers to a non-binding  June, 2016 referendum in the UK  which approved Britain leaving the European Community of 27 nations.  It is also refers to the  proposals the UK will make to the EU in negotiating their leaving the Single Market and Customs Union.   The break away from the EU will involve changes in trade, regulations,  finance, immigration,  citizenship status  and human rights policies and the real prospect of the return of a hard border in Ireland. 

2.  How will UK’s BREXIT  impact on the Republic of Ireland and the six  counties  referred to as Northern Ireland?

A British exit from the EU will leave the Republic of Ireland (26 counties) the only nation in the EU to share a British border  i. e. N. I. six counties.  Ireland will likely be severely impacted by any BREXIT policies especially  tariffs, Foreign Direct Investment, EU Structural Funds, Farming grants and freedom of movement of EU citizens and peace process obligations.

Since the British have  done little to define their exit proposals, we can only speculate on border and peace process issues.  If, after EU negotiations BREXIT terms are  agreed , then it is presumed its implementation will be phased in and begin in  2020.    Irish exporters to UK most immediately affected by pound devaluation.  Environment, energy,  education sectors will also be affected.

3.   How will the   1998 Belfast Treaty(GFA)  between the UK and Ireland  be affected by  BREXIT?              

The 1998 Belfast Agreement between Eire & UK to end the armed conflict was brokered and supported by the U. S.  The British  Conservative party currently in power has nothing but contempt for the  Treaty  (see Gove, THE PRICE OF PEACE). 

The Cameron and May governments have done everything they can to obstruct fulfilling its obligations.  The UK wishes to repeal the incorporation of  European Human Rights Convention in UK law and   has passed legislation to empower Ministers  to ignore EU directives in decision making.  Key justice provisions of the Good Friday Agreement have  been ignored,  corrective programs unfunded and justice obstructed.   Conservatives are even proposing a bill to unilaterally  provide amnesty for all British soldiers who killed innocent civilians.   Irish Taoiseach Varadker says this not possible per the peace pact.   

4.  Will  Britain be in some sort of distress and in need of US aid as a result of BREXIT? 

As the world’s  6th  largest economy,  UK is well positioned to weather any EU exit storms. There will be certain negative impacts  which will likely be borne Ireland, by N. I and Scotland.  Brexit supporters believe that free from the EU they can negotiate  better independent trade deals.  UK must  cut new   trade deals with the US  and other nations  to mitigate BREXIT.  If such deals can be agreed to they  cannot go into effect until the divorce is finalized around January, 2020.  The British PM has announced she  expects US cooperation and assistance in helping to counter EU policies and negative effects of BREXIT.  President Trump first promised the UK a great trade deal but recently  publicly branded the UK Brexit options White Paper as an impediment to a US trade deal.   The U. S. in 2017 had a trade surplus with the UK so it presumably is NOT  a priority trade partner. On the other hand the EU is the second largest trading market in the world and a priority for US negotiation. 

5.  If  the POTUS supports the UK’s economic Brexit plans which not only  further  damage the letter and    spirit of the 1998 Belfast Treaty  but  harm the people of Ireland  and its economy,  how can Americans  oppose or place conditions on  any  UK deals  or conversely  aid Ireland?   

In America the National Security Council (NSC), the Department of State (DoS), the US Trade Representative and key  Congressional Committees like Ways & Means, Foreign Affairs, Senate Foreign Relations and the Committee for the Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki Commission)    control  foreign policy,  foreign trade and EU relations.  In order to undermine  American’s  opposition,  the UK, is regularly meeting with  US businesses and officials.  The American Brexit Committee is enlisting  advocates  to brief Members of Congress, to express written and vocal  views to the above officials and insist on meetings to explain BREXIT consequences and what it will mean to America and to  Ireland. If warranted we will ask Congress to withhold approval of  U. K. trade deals and contracts.    How America responds to  the UK exit from the EU  is  primarily a concern for Americans.  However, the ABC will  add its voice of opposition Brexit policies that have a negative impact on Ireland, America’s longstanding  ally.     

6.      How can tiny Ireland challenge or defend itself  against BREXIT plans  that impose economic hardship and/or  violate Belfast Treaty obligations?

Every Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) has publicly and privately stated  that  when America and Americans lend their voice to a position of the Irish government,  the UK tends to listen more carefully.  Britain has already ignored and obstructed some Treaty provisions.   UK BREXIT policies or decisions, when implemented,  may  remove  EU Human Rights provisions,  delay legacy funding of   inquests into  killings of Catholics.  U. S.  cannot ignore the  British  failures with respect to the peace process e. g. Dublin/Monaghan bombings by British Army,  MI-5 murder of Pat Finucane and murder of Rosemary Nelson, nor give up on   justice for 300  Catholics murders that have yet to be investigated or given a Coroners Inquest.   If  US-UK trade deals are to be approved,  military intelligence contracts awarded, waivers for  things or   landing and broadcast rights extended, then  the U. S. is in a strong  position to modify British action and secure  compliance with treaty obligations and justice for victims’ families.   

7.   Will  Britain’s  leaving the EU affect the “special relationship” the US has with Britain?

 The so-called ‘special relationship’ is a media fiction the British have been  perpetuating  since WW II and amounts to  little more than UK doing whatever  US requires including going to war no matter the merits.    President Obama opposed Brexit  claiming  the UK  could raise  US concerns from inside the EU.    Perhaps the US is ill equipped to make our own case to the EU on trade matters,  but that  is no reason to ignore or neglect the special relationship the US has with Ireland.  America needs a partner in promoting democracy, justice and the rule of law and  Ireland is obviously a  better partner than the UK which has  destabilized Irelands peace  with assassinations of 5 elected officials, 2 lawyers, two priests  and a journalist and hundreds of Her Majesty’s own Subjects.    

Americans with the American Brexit Committee can persuade the US to assist Ireland or to  object to UK  governments Brexit  positions as not being in the best interests of the US, justice, democracy or treaty obligations.  The US Congress  could hold up approval of military and  intelligence ( spying) contracts;  deny entry to US of British military and Ministers complicit in collusion with loyalist killers (Magnitsky and Leahy Laws);   deny MLAT  subpoena requests; and/or  oppose British entry to NAFTA.  TRIDENT submarine  and military facilities could be cut back or military resources could be redeployed etc. 

8.   Is there any discernible impact of BREXIT on American citizens or the economy?

President Trump’s flip-flop trade policy and trade war threats makes this question difficult to assess at this time.  However, there is no doubt that Ireland  would be the most immediate and significant  collateral damage of Brexit. Little evidence the present Conservative-DUP government in England is concerned about Irish impact but specific evidence of   certain British officials gloating how they could make Ireland suffer. 

Rev. 8/1/18